RUSH: Nate Silver appears to be hedging his bets out there. Nate Silver is the wunderkind poll analyst that the left treats as the pope. Nate Silver is infallible, except he isn’t anymore. Nate Silver doesn’t actually do polling. He takes all the polling data he can find, processes it, and then rates candidates on a percentage chance of winning. And his latest had Hillary with a 60-some-odd chance and Trump with a 30-some-odd chance of winning.
However, Nate Silver, founder of the FiveThirtyEight.com blog and polling firm, says that many 2016 polls may prove incorrect because so many Americans are undecided or else say they are backing third parties. Nate Silver, in a tweet this morning, said undecideds are much higher than normal, so the risk of a polling error in either direction is higher than usual.
Silver is cautioning people to be ready for a major failure by pollsters in predicting America’s last-minute choices. Now, Nate Silver, to avoid a riot, says that Clinton is still likely to win, but — and then lists all the possibilities where she might not win. Here are his three possibilities: A solid Clinton win, an epic Clinton blowout, and a close call Trump probably wins Electoral College. Those are the three possibilities.
If the polls understate Trump’s support by 3% by a uniform margin of 3%, Clinton still wins, although just barely, Silver said. But no matter, Nate Silver today is declaring 2016 polls less reliable than prior years, may be hedging his bets a little bit, maybe covering the old derriere just a little bit here. It just means what we’ve been trying to pound into people’s heads for the longest time. They don’t know, because nobody does.
Look, Trump’s candidacy presents a dynamic that they can’t factor. That’s the problem that they’re having when you get right down to it.